Geopolitical Update – Second Round of Ecuador Election Looms Large for Mining Industry

The 2025 Ecuadorian general election is underway and heading to a runoff. The first round occurred on February 9th. In that vote, Daniel Noboa received 44.2% of the vote, while leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez received 44.0%. As neither candidate took over 50% of the vote or took greater than 40% while being 10 points ahead of their nearest rival, the election moves to a runoff on April 13th. The latest opinion poll puts President Daniel Noboa (50.3%) slightly ahead of leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez (49.7%). Key issues include ongoing struggles with crime, economic challenges, and energy issues made clear by widespread blackouts due to significant drought conditions in 2024.