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Precious Metals – Looking for Leverage to the Gold Price Rally

Gold is on the move, looking for the companies we expect to be the big winners. Recent events have been very constructive for the gold price and point to it having the potential to move higher in the near-term. Taking this into account we have evaluated the leverage our current coverage universe has to the gold price (Figure 1). The companies with the highest leverage to gold in our coverage universe are: Gran Colombia Gold (TSX:GCM, FV est. C$6.00), De Grey (ASX:DEG, FV est. A$0.35) and Lion One (TSX:LIO, FV est. C$1.35). We note that while Seabridge (TSX:SEA, FV est. C$29.00) does not have the highest financial leverage to the gold price, it could be a go-to name because of its higher market cap and better liquidity. As well, while we do not have a NAVPS estimate on, Minera Alamos (TSXV:MAI) and RNC Minerals (TSX:RNX, FV est. C$1.00) both should also react favourably to a rising gold price.

Reversal in Fed stance has gold rallying, up 4% since May 28. At the start of 2019, market expectations were that the US Federal Reserve would be tightening monetary policy, following a December rate hike. However, since then a combination of factors, including weak job numbers and the ongoing trade war with China impacting economic growth have reversed this stance and the market now expects multiple rate cuts before year-end. This has the impact of weakening the US dollar and results in the gold price moving higher. With factors forcing the Feds dovish stance unlikely to change, the recent rally in the gold price could have legs.

Looking for leverage. While all primary gold companies and those that have gold as a byproduct should benefit from a rising gold price, some should outperform. We evaluated our coverage universe (where we have DCF based NAVPS estimates) to determine which companies should benefit the most from a higher gold price. While the primary gold companies demonstrated strong leverage, led by Gran Colombia, it is worth noting that companies with significant gold by-product credits like Aquila Resources (TSX:AQA, FV est. C$0.36) and SolGold (TSX:SOLG, FV est. C$1.40) also should benefit from a rising gold price.

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COMPANIES

Abcourt Mines Inc.
Aeris Resources Limited.
Aero Energy Ltd.
Alaska Energy Metals
ALX Resources Corp.
American Future Fuel Corp.
Anfield Energy Inc.
Argentina Lithium & Energy Corp.
Aris Mining Corp.
Aston Minerals Ltd.
Atco Mining Inc.
Atha Energy Corp.
Aura Energy Ltd.
Aurion Resources
Aurora Energy Metals Ltd.
Azincourt Energy Corp.
Aztec Minerals Corp.
Barton Gold Holdings Limited
Baselode Energy Corp.
Blackrock Silver Corp.
Blackstone Minerals Ltd.
Blackwolf Copper and Gold Ltd.
Blue Sky Uranium Corp.
Bradda Head Lithium Ltd.
Brunswick Exploration Inc.
Canada Nickel Company Inc.
CanAlaska Uranium Ltd.
Cassiar Gold Corp.
Cerrado Gold Inc.
Chalice Mining Ltd.
Churchill Resources Inc.
Clean Air Metals Inc.
Cordoba Minerals Corp.
Critical Elements Lithium Corp.
Defiance Silver Corp.
Denarius Metals Corp.
E-Power Resources Inc.
E3 Lithium Ltd.
EDM Resources Inc.
Electra Battery Materials Corp.
Empress Royalty Corp.
Energy Fuels Inc.
EnviroGold Global Ltd.
Equity Metals Corp.
Falco Resources Ltd.
Fathom Nickel Inc.
Fission Uranium Corp.
F3 Uranium Corp.
Flying Nickel Mining Corp.
Foremost Lithium Resource & Technology Ltd.
Forsys Metals Corp.
Forum Energy Metals Corp.
Galleon Gold Corp.
Global Atomic Corp.
Goldstorm Metals Corp
Goliath Resources Ltd.
GoviEx Uranium Inc.
GR Silver Mining Ltd.
Graphite One Inc.
Grid Metals Corp.
Grounded Lithium Corp.
Halcones Precious Metals Corp.
IsoEnergy Ltd.
Japan Gold Corp.
Karora Resources Inc.
Kesselrun Resources Ltd.
Kootenay Silver Inc.
Koryx Copper Inc.
Kuya Silver Corp.
Laramide Resources Ltd.
Latin Resources Ltd.
Libero Copper & Gold Corp.
Lotus Resources Ltd.
Lumina Gold Corp.
Mawson Gold Ltd.
MTB Metals Corp.
Murchison Minerals Ltd.
Myriad Uranium Corp.

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